PATIENT-LEVEL SIMULATION TSD
TSD 15: Cost-effectiveness modelling using patient-level simulation
Appendix A: Visual basic code for discrete event simulation example model
Appendix B: R code for DES example model
Appendix C: Simul8 documentation
To download all the documents above in one zip file, click here.
Economic models can use either a patient-level or cohort-level modelling approach to estimate the expected costs and outcomes across a particular population. In a patient-level simulation, the outcomes are modelled for individual patients and then the average is taken across a sufficiently large sample of patients, whilst in a cohort-level model the outcomes are estimated for the cohort as a whole, without considering the outcomes for individual patients within that cohort.
The aims of this Technical Support Document (TSD) on patient-level simulation are to:
- Increase awareness of patient-level modelling approaches and highlight the key differences between patient-level and cohort-level modelling approaches
- Provide guidance on situations in which patient-level modelling approaches may be preferable to cohort-level modelling approaches
- Provide a description of how to implement a patient-level simulation using either a patient-level state-transition or discrete event simulation (DES) framework in a variety of software environments (Microsoft Excel®, R, TreeAge Pro®).
- Provide example models illustrating how to implement a simple cost-effectiveness model using a patient-level approach. The example models cover both DES (R, Visual Basic module within Microsoft Excel®, TreeAge Pro®) and patient-level state-transition (Microsoft Excel® and TreeAge Pro®) frameworks.
- Provide guidance on good practice when developing and reporting a patient-level simulation to inform a NICE TA.
The focus of this document is on the application of patient-level simulation to systems where patients can be assumed to be independent as systems incorporating patient interaction are not a common feature with Technology Appraisal.
To receive notification when new reports or documents are uploaded on to this website, please join our mailing list by entering your details on the right of this page or follow us on Twitter @NICE_DSU